sofaF1

I don't know about you, but I feel that there is something missing from this weekend. It's been two weeks since Australia, and I'm ready for another Grand Prix. How about you? This whole 'three weeks' thing seems to be getting out of hand. I have a vague, and probably inaccurate, memory of there only being one three week break in the summer in the old days. Now there seem to be far too many long breaks: there is almost a month from Bahrain to Spain, then three weeks after Hungary. In place of this we also seem to have more races within a week of each other, when it used to be just Britain and France. I think I'd prefer every two weeks, rather than randomly short and long periods. But what are we supposed to do on weekends like this? The F1 fan's brain begins to get nervous, he starts to sweat, he sits on his sofa on Sunday afternoon watching a blank screen for two hours. Something needs to be done to help these poor people.

So according to my secret sources Ferrari will announce that they will have to replace Kimi's engine before the Malaysian Grand Prix. So we will likely see Kimi charging from the back, something we know all too well that he's very good at doing. Lets not be surprised if this is an opportunity for Massa to win while the McLaren is still bedding down. Also don't be surprised to see Kimi doing a place or two better at the charging than Massa did.

So the result of our Poll (a day late, sorry about that):



And we can see that the one thing that everyone is agreed on is that Lewis Hamilton isn't the new Button. Most people think he could be the next Hakkinen which is pretty good for a rookie. This is the most in agreement the readers of SofaF1 have ever been. So we're probably right. Although I, rather madly, voted for him to be the next Schumacher. We'll check back in a few years and see if I was right.

Anyway, new question for the season, who is going to be the first to be fired this season?

To continue today's trend of journalist-bashing (although I wouldn't quite go so far as Alex to call them all a cancer on the sport), a point made by Richard Barnes annoyed me quite a lot. He said that it was Alonso's style to win championships by getting an early lead and then driving conservatively to maintain it. His 'entire approach to racing' is built on this foundation, apparently. And, because of Ferrari's dominant start to the season, he is being 'forced out of his comfort zone'.

I would argue that this is precisely the way Alonso doesn't like to win championships, and is exactly why he left Renault. They gave him a good car at the beginning of the season, but then failed to develop it as much as his rivals: in 2005 McLaren caught up, and in 2006 Ferrari did. It is the very opposite of Alonso's style; it is just the way things happened. We could only see a style, or a preferred method, to winning titles over a much longer period. But, more significantly, I don't think any driver prefers to win a championship in any particular way. What they want to do is win as many races as possible. That's it. I suppose, however, that Richard Barnes would say this is Schumacher's style. He has misfired quite badly.

There does seem to be a habit among formula one pundits to extrapolate in extremis. I personally think that the murray quote, "anything can happen in formula one, and it usually does" is completely correct. In other words, each race nothing can be expected except something unexpected. And while all of us sensible folk at SofaF1 are taking things as they come some pundits have decided based on this one race that they have seen the future, and that the future is boring. Basically the argument runs like this:

The Ferrari is over a second a lap faster and Kimi and Massa don't talk to me about Massa, I know last week I told you he was going to be world champion by stupidly extrapolating off of the winter testing but everyone knows that winter testing doesn't mean anything. What really counts is one race which when you stupidly extrapolate it makes you realise that Kimi is going to walk it. And despite the title of last weeks article being, "the most exciting season evah" I'm now ready to say that this will be the most boring formula one season since 1949 when there weren't even any races. Oh and Lewis Hamilton's the next Schumacher but if he puts a foot wrong between now and the end of his career then I told you he was rubbish.

Yes they seem to be writing that kind of thing. And I just don't understand it. If Ferrari walk it then what does that mean for Alonso's decision to jump ship. Could he have held it together at Renault? What will this do to Kimi? Was Michael right to have quit last year when this years car is so good? Do Ferrari actually need Ross Brawn back? And that's only if Ferrari walk it which is far from certain. They won a race but one of their cars had reliability problems. McLaren are coming from a winless season and are accelerating towards the front. And... the list goes on and on.

These paid journalists who complain about how the sport is boring are a cancer on our sport. If they find Formula One boring, then watch something else, or at the very least stop writing about it.

[Edited to make it clear who is a cancer, not all journalists, just ones who complain about how Formula 1 is boring.]

Remember the flexible wing saga from last year? Well apparently this year it will be the flexible floor saga. Apparently Ron Dennis has lodged a complaint with the FIA about teams (read Ferrari) have developed a flexible floor. The main thing is that a flexible floor would drastically help aerodynamics and would be illigal if it were designed to do this. But the floor is allowed to move to help with suspention over bumps. Expect Ferrari to say it is for the latter and if it helps with aero then that's just an accidental bonus.

There's more in this article on SpeedTv.com.

Well Alex gets off to a flying start, predicting Raikkonen for the pole and win gave him 6 points to kick off with.

Fourstar's default option of his final championship prediction stood him in good stead to pull in a healthy haul, Raikkonen again landing 6 points.

Nick was let down a bit by Massa, but was on the money with Fisichella and picked up a point with Rosberg.

and me.... less said the better!

So after the first round, the SofaF1 Championship looks like this:

1. Alex 9
2. Fourstar 8
3. Nick 7
4. Bearded Stew 6

Interestingly, as there were 20 points available, it just goes to show how hard it is to pick up anywhere near all the points available!

...Like the preverbial "Royal with Cheese" it is the little things that can make it difficult to adapt to a new team. And as Alonso proves here it may still have not happened for him:

The result of last weeks poles were very accurate, but I must say slightly skewed by the one person who voted after the race had actually occured! At least that's one way to increase the accuracy!

So this weeks question: What does the future hold for Lewis Hamilton?

Subsequent to my race-time blitherings, in his review of the race James Allen gives a reason for the priority given to Alonso during the pit stops. Apparently, McLaren always let the fastest qualifying driver choose a strategy which the slower one isn't allow to cover. If Hamilton had been on an opposing team, he would've fuelled longer and stopped later than Alonso for the second stop. As it was, McLaren fuelled him shorter, so he stopped earlier, allowing Alonso to put in two quick laps, and pass him. What effect did the backmarkers have, however? Would Alonso have beaten Hamilton even if he stopped later? We won't know. But it will be interesting to see if they continue this policy. As James says, if Hamilton out-qualifies Alonso will he really be given priority? Alonso surely is the better bet for the championship. I can't help feeling that such a good start to the season for Hamilton is probably the worst thing that could happen. Now the expectations for him are even higher. It could all end disastrously.

There were so many questions going into Australia and almost all of them have now been answered after what was a thrilling race. Although nobody looked like touching Kimi all day (and rather worryingly I think he had his engine revs turned down from the half way point) there was lots of excitement behind him.

One of the biggest disappointments came from the gearbox failure of Massa. Because of this we were denied the promising race between the Ferraris. I still feel that Kimi is the faster by quite a way, but I do think that Massa will trouble him from time to time. Also despite his difficult start to the season at least he got some points, and also I think Massa is mentally stronger than a Rubens or a Fisi who might have been so distraught that they wrote off the season. Massa will be back, but will he be faster?

The rookies had a pretty poor time in general. Heikki and Kubica both had a torrid time. Which for both started out all the way back on Friday with a lack of running time. Heikki because of mechanical problems. Kubica because of team policy. But neither really has any better excuse than a lack of experience. Both, but especially Heikki will have to up their game. Heikki will have Flav's criticism ringing in his ears for the next three weeks.

Anthony Davidson did quite well and finished the race but may have made a non obvious rookie error. Right near the beginning of the race he was crashed into which jarred his back. He drove on in crippling back pain because he has always had this bugbear about how in his three outings he has never finished a race. Perhaps it would have been better to retire as the experience has landed him in hospital. The amount of track time lost by drivers like Ralf due to his bad back must be massive. And Anthony should bear that in mind. Finishing is important, but so is finishing in one piece.

Hamilton was obviously sublime. A fantastically measured performance through the whole weekend. He even managed to unsettle Alonso, causing Fernando to have to use more sets of tires in qualifying to keep in front of him. He did make a few tiny mistakes but they were minor and to be expected when you're driving that close to the edge (literally of the track). Alonso, with the team, engineered the overtake in the pits. And we will probably never know the true situation there. With no team radio we don't know if Alonso was being held up by Hamilton and wanted past or if it was simply that the team decided to give the position to their team leader. I doubt the later frankly, but we shall see as time goes on. Hamilton was awesome, and Alonso will have to watch his back. But remember that in about 5 races time Hamilton is going to start getting tired. Even with Mark suggesting that Hamilton is the fittest man in F1, I think it will all starts to wear you out unless you're completely used to it.

A final word on Ferrari. Just before he went on the podium Kimi received a phone call. James, quite reasonably, guessed that the call was from Luca Mont but actually it was from Michael Schumacher. In typical Kimi form when he was asked what Michael had had to say he responded that because of a bad line he hadn't been able to hear a word of it. If only they'd still had that Vodaphone contract etc.

Christijan Albers has switched numbers with his team mate. I'm very surprised that this was allowed because there are strict rules to how all of the numbers are assigned. But apparently he doesn't like to drive with an even number! What an odd chap, etc...

Australia - It's the excitement of staying up all night.

It's the fun of having some friends round for a party that goes through 'til morning.

It's waiting for the first time Jim says, "Hello", all season - I hope Steve can do it.

It's back to school.

It's remembering that amazing time that Mark Webber got his Australian Minardi into a points paying position and seeing Paul Stoddart in tears.

It's a lot of other things, but mainly it's watching them all seeming to have that much fun.

So what's going to be different between our predictions for the season and our predictions for the race? Might you feel that Ferrari have an early advantage but will go to seed later in the season as the full lack of Ross Brawn becomes clear. Might you think that Massa being the only person in Ferrari and McLaren to have be in the same spot gives him an advantage. Do you subscribe to Kimi's point that with the tyre changes the rookies have the advantage because they aren't trying to unlearn how tyres have worked in Formula 1 for the last few years. Or are you focusing on the carnage that the large number of rookies might bring to bear on the race this year. Anything can happen in Formula 1 and it usually does. And that goes double for Australia. We had 4 safety car sessions last year, and then it wasn't even the first race of the season!

So top 8 ranked places, and a pole position prediction please. Good Luck!

I'm quite uncertain about the possibility of the cars being fitted with brake lights. Surely it goes against the whole principle of the sport? What I'm guessing, however, is that it isn't for normal use. During a race a driver won't need to find out when the car in front of him is about to break. He knows. They all break within a fraction of a second of each other, at the same point of the track, every lap. They know instinctively when to break. I imagine what the lights would be for is an emergency. I remember at Monaco the cars frequently pile into each other when there's an accident up ahead because they're not expecting anyone to be breaking then. At a track like that you drive mostly on instinct, not what you can see. So maybe it is a good idea. But then again, like the safety car, maybe it's just part of being a good driver, being lucky, and getting through tough situations. I don't know.

Added to this arena are the new lights on every driver's steering wheel. No longer do we have blue flags. Drivers have a blue light on their wheel. When you think about it, it's pretty incredible the drivers ever saw the blue flags. Will this change things?

I'm sure Nick will be in with his crazy prediction for the week at some point, but i've got a few thoughts i'd like to air before the serious buisiness of predicting the top eight gets under way.

In Melbourne i reckon :-

Webber will be beaten by a Williams

Button will be beaten by a Toyota

A McLaren will break down

A Renault will fall off the track somewhere.

Whatever happens, this race is a bit of a lottery to predict as no one really knows yet how good anyone/any car actually is in full race conditions! Roll on Melbourne!

After reading, hearing, digesting and deliberating all winter about how the 2007 F1 season was going to pan out, I thought I would try to summarise my view on all this info…

...well, that was last week and now the cat is somewhat out of the bag with the championship pole poll being aired on these very pages.

But, here I am anyway, slightly adapted, but hopefully by way of explanation as to my choices for the top places. I'm sorry as you've all heard it (or written it) already, this is mainly me trying to makes sense of the vibes in my own head.

I think an important factor this year will be team unity, and from the things I have absorbed I'm left with the feeling that McLaren will present a very united, focussed and determined front, there is no doubt they have the skills and experience within the team and I am sure they will bounce back form this last streak of bad form, but I think with Alonso and Hamilton in place a whole chunk of fresh air has been blasted through the place. Alonso is the superstar driver and coming off the back of double world championships is respected and accepted. Hamilton in his rookie year will be out to learn all he can, could provide solid support for Alonso and being a racer he will be out to prove himself also and go for the wins when he can.

Ferrari on the other hand seems to me to have a very fast, reliable car (always a good thing in F1) but will struggle a bit more within the team. Both Massa and Raikkonnen are superstar drivers and will want to be seen as such, both within the team and to the world. It may well be more of a problem for Massa if Kimi outperforms him. The team too have been used to pulling all the stops out for Schumacher (second driver included) and may well have more issues adjusting to the different setup…

…and no Ross Brawn.

But, whilst dining at a fabulous Italian restaurant in the Channel Islands recently (which just happened to be F1 & MotoGP themed, very Ferrari loyal and full of memorabilia), the waiter tipped Massa for the title, maybe that's not a surprise! ITV though appear to me to be subliminally rooting for McLaren judging by their new colour scheme on the website!

Bernie has recently said that he thinks the point system encourages drivers to be conservative and content with second place rather than going for the win. I think we've known this to be true since they initiated the system. It was developed to reward consistency. As he says, it means there is less overtaking. So it got me wondering: why was it introduced? And who introduced it? I imagine at the time Bernie probably agreed with it. And I think it must have been one of the many anti-Schumacher measures from which the sport is still suffering. Michael was just winning by so much in 2002 that there had to be some way to get the opposition closer. The new points system did do this: remember Raikkonen almost won in 2003, even though he only had one victory. (It would've been a catastrophic error if he had won.) Since then we've had various other efforts to slow Schumacher down, but what do we do now that he's gone? Well, we should just go back to the old system. Bernie's comments are like the first steps in this process (as they always inevitably are).

One of the things that I really miss about the Formula 1 off season is the lack of Martin. I really should get that Martin quote generator up and running (and fix the layout of the site so Murray's quotes don't go flying off to the right, and fix the poll so that it doesn't crash into the text or disappear down to the bottom or whatever, but enough about that.)

Only certain people have that great turn of phrase that means you get quotes like this: Talking about why he usually right foot brakes.

The problem I have is that I knocked my left foot off my leg once [in a crash at Dallas in 1984], so it doesn’t always work so well.

Read the full article here

None of us seem to believe that Honda really do care about the environment. But we're pretty even stevens about the reason for it! Lots of votes, excellent stuff!

Anyway, A new question for this week: "How many cars will make it to the end of the Australian Grand Prix?"

Welcome to 2007:

Having been quite excited that autosport.com decided to start covering MotoGP*, I'm now very annoyed. Because I was working yesterday I recorded the first race of the season and returned home eager to watch it. However, I made the stupid mistake of checking my email and looking on autosport.com before sitting down to watch it. So, the worst possible thing happened that can happen to a motorsport viewer: I knew the result before I'd seen the race. Some might argue there's no point viewing a race after you know the result - but not me. I watched it anyway and it was a lot of fun. What was astonishing was the difference in straight line speed between Rossi and Stoner - almost 15km/h, apparently. This sets the season up to be a cracker. It occurred to me, however, what the main difference between MotoGP and F1 is: aerodynamics. On the motorbikes there is very little: in a remarkable way, the rider himself is the most important aerodynamic device (and would be banned in F1 for being 'movable').

*Until someone invents SofaMoto, I'm afraid you'll have to put with me blithering on about it here. Incidentally, the one thing I don't like about this sport is its name. It seems too modern, and too much of an attempt to be cool, when in fact the sport has been running longer than F1.

Toyota's Ralf Schumacher considers himself one of the top three drivers in Formula One and insists it is only a matter of time before Toyota wins the F1 title.

I'll have what he's having!

On another rules change issue, I was just thinking about one of the tire rules. The rules state that the teams can change their tires at any point up until 3 minutes before the start. Doesn't this mean that all of the teams will do this. So you will have the teams all suddenly putting the tires on at the last minute on the start / finish line to try and gain some advantage.

I can see this procedure, with a lot of teams stretched because it's two drivers and only one pit crew, causing some last minute problems at the start of the season. They haven't had any real experience of it, and it's going to be all very last minute. I reckon there are going to be some starts with some cars not having all of their tires.

It is traditional here at SofaF1 to have our predictions for the qualifying and race on the Friday before each race. But as we'll be doing the race predictions next Friday and we won't want to get it all confused I think this Friday is the day for our championship predictions. But first, like an old friend who smells a bit, the traditional round up blather.

The massive shake up in F1 has meant that some have said this season will be impossible to predict others have suggested the same old usual suspects will be holding up the front of the form book.

Ferrari have seen massive change, and although Kimi would have been a dead cert number one driver there this time last year people have been seriously critical of him over the off season. Bernie has even said that he prefers Massa. How things pan out between them will be electric.

Alonso joins McLaren, and so does Hamilton. Another fantastically exciting driver combination. Alonso is likely to out class the rookie, but Hamilton might still win a race. But can the car hold itself together this year? McLaren didn't win any races last year.

Talking about winning last year what about world champion winning team Renault? It seems losing Alonso has hit them hard. But perhaps their car will be slow but reliable? Whatever, new man Hekki should prove to be an interesting man to watch.

Or will the upset of the year come from BMW? Who have been going so well this winter. Or Honda? Or the Adrian Newey designed Red Bull?

With Michael gone, the king is dead. Long live the king, but who will it be?

This year we shall be asking you for your top eight drivers for each race and the one person you think is going to be on pole. We should have from you your top eight drivers for the championship and the driver you think will be on pole the most over the season.

A brief re-cap of the rules:

For each race you get:

2 points for pole.
2 points for each race position you get right.
1 point for each race position within 1 place of what you guessed.

First place counts as double so 4 points if you get that right, 2 points if the person you picked to come first comes second.

And everything is doubled again for the championship points. Note if two people tie for number of poles people who picked either get the points.

Rather nicely this means that each race is worth 20 points. And rather less nicely this means the whole championship is out of 380.

Well good luck, Scott's speed, and see you on the Sofa!

Labels: Pole Poll

Whilst our focus has been taken up with the tyre and engine regulations, we have seemingly overlooked another introduction this year: new safety car rules. From now on drivers will not be allowed to pit for fuel from the moment a safety car period is announced until all the cars are lined up behind it and the message 'Pit Lane Open' is displayed. This rule seems deliberately designed to take the fun out of safety car periods. Now teams will get a few minutes to decide if it's worth pitting or not. It will be a calculated affair. There'll be no more do or die decisions - lone backmarkers deciding to stay out there and see how far up the grid they can get, or brave midfield runners being the only ones to pit and hoping it pays off by the end. Now, I suspect, either everyone will pit or no one will pit. It won't be a contest of strategies and scheming, but one of science. Also introduced this year is the idea that lapped cars will overtake the safety car and rejoin at the back of the train. Is this good or not? Certainly it frees up the front runners to race with each other rather than battling for the first laps of a restart to overtake slower cars. But I always slightly agree with whoever it is that says blue flags should be banned and the art of lapping cars reintroduced to the sport. If they can't overtake them, what hope is there that they'll come close to their real rivals?

Here there will likely be a different situation. Unlike at McLaren and Ferrari where the four drivers are reasonably secure emotionally and contractually there is very much a feeling of last chance saloon over at Renault for Fisi. The tragedey of the once promising driver who had never been bested by his team mate only to have him destroyed by Alonso. A lesson for Hamilton here?

Fisi had been saying that this is going to be his season before he got into the car but now he's not so sure. He feels the Renault are behind from the start and that's one of those things that seems to really knock the wind out of his sails.

I've always got the impression with Fisi that if at the begining of the season he won the first three races on the trott (sometging that certainly seemed possible before the testing round) he would feel invincible and on the top of his game and so good that he would stop having to try. But that if he lost the first three races then he would write his chances off by suggesting that the team had sabotaged him and so there was basicaly no point trying. Either way he gives up much too easily.

And the problem is with such a hot young gun in the sister car Fisi won't be able to slow down for a second. I think Fisi could retire this season.

Perhaps the biggest surprise of winter testing was the vitriol that was leveled at Kimi. It was either that or that Massa outpaced him.

So what's going on? Massa has been at the team, got used to the tires and has always been a much more natural tester than Kimi so should it even have come as a suprise? Add to that that Michael really likes Massa and Kimi has been seen by some (wrongly I think) to be stealing Michael's seat.

This rivalry will be an interesting one to watch. Massa vastly improved last season and will be perhaps Kimi's toughest team mate. And there couldn't be more difference between the effusive Massa and quiet Kimi.

But the other side of this is that even with Ross and Michael (almost) out of the picture Jean Todt is a smart cookie. I have a feeling that off the track the two of them might bond.

From a racing point of view perhaps the biggest change at Ferrari is the one people have been talking about least. The end of team orders. Even though many see Kimi as the de facto number one, I truely believe that Ferrari will let the drivers fight at least at first. At least until a clear leader emerges. That's got to be the way they go. Kimi is quick but we don't know for sure he's quick at Ferrari. We also know that Massa has a special place in Todt's heart. Not as special as his place for Michael but certainly stronger than that for Kimi.

Lets just hope that an indulgent Father allows both of his sons to flower. And doesn't just leave one feeling neglected.

And now that Bernie has come out on the side of Massa saying that he thinks it will be Massa not Kimi this year who wins the championship it will be an interesting pressure that Kimi feels ringing in his ears as he's landing in Australia to start the season.

It looks so far like young Lewis is going to be trying hard to keep up with his famous rival. But it would be hard to bet against Alonso in this one. The man is so fast and so consistent and is also already a two times world champion. He's going to be a tough cookie to crack. The big question is will all of this crack Hamilton?

He is very young but he's also very experienced. I think Ron played a very shrewd game by getting Lewis down to those races last year. That really helped expose him to the media storm in a small controlled way. He's now had some time to think about that and should now be prepared for what's coming this year.

He's a rookie, he's bound to make mistakes. But he's also fast. It almost comes down to the order that these come in as to what people make of him. Mistakes first speed second people will start predicting race wins before the end of the season. Fast first, the honeymoon is over, and when the mistakes come people will be writing that Ron is thinking of dropping the inconsistent Hamilton. And completely fabricated rumours have a habit of becoming reality in Formula One just by being repeated so often.

Personally I don't think there will be much team mate rivalry here unless Hamilton wins a race before Alonso does. Alonso knows how good he is and doesn't have to prove it to Hamilton. Also I think Alonso is a good bloke and will look to support Lewis. Whether this support neuters Hamilton's ability to beat Alonso as it did to Fisi before him remains to be seen.

One of the most difficult relationships in Formula One to navigate is that of team mates. They tend to resist the urge, unless they were Jaques Villeneuve - thanks Jaques, to trash talk their closest rival. But why?

Formula One is a sport of giant contrasts and complexities and none of them is more fascinating than the dichotomy between the sports moments of individualism and team work.

The drivers are driving for themselves in the drivers championship and driving for the team in the constructer's championship. But which one is more important? Well it depends on who you ask but normally consensus is on the side of the drivers competition. (Unless ITV are desperately trying to drum up interest at the end of the season).

But, as the saying goes, to win the championship first you must beat your team mate. With so many new team mate parings this year it is certainly going to be an interesting thing to watch develop in the next few months.

What is it that autosport has against Bernie Ecclestone? A clear editorial decision has been made over there to mention a certain something every time they write about him. His age.

I'm not exactly sure when I first started noticing it but I think it's in the last year that his name has changed from "Bernie Ecclestone" to "Bernie Ecclestone, 76".

Presumable he
a) doesn't care about it and
b) the journalists would claim that it was factual reportage assigning no motive.

But you don't see it saying, "Jenson Button, 27" so couldn't he do them under the age discrimination act? Although it would probably just make them dislike him more.

It just seems like a kind of cheap trick. And I'm not sure what they are trying to achieve? Do they want Matt Bishop to become head of FOM? I think we should be told.

The votes are in and it looks like our readership is tied between staying up and going to sleep.



But clearly Bearded Stew didn't vote because if the man isn't drinking John Smiths during the Grand Prix then I'm a Dutchman (maybe I should drive for Spyker)!

Anyway, a new week, a new poll, Why did Honda go green?

I wanted to say, "What on Earth" but Autosport beat me to it.

My favorite thing about this story is that in their presentation to the FIA (before the public presentation) Honda said, "We want Formula 1 to be carbon neutral by 2015". And Max Mosley said, "Urm it already is innit?"

Apparently since 1997 the FIA have been offsetting all of the carbon emissions of the cars and all of the flights to the races by building forests in Mexico, but they just kind of forgot to tell anyone.

So Honda had to take that bit out of their presentation. The only sad thing is that Honda Racing itself isn't carbon neutral (all of the manufacturing of the cars etc) and that despite this Earth Car marketing campaign they haven't even pledged to do that themselves.