sofaF1

Nick's post about the teams expectations reminded me of an idea that I'd had for a while which is to run another championship right here on sofaf1. The idea is based exactly on what Nick observed which is that not all of the teams want or rather expect the same things. I think that at the end of the season a team that has moved forward three places in the points order at the back of the grid might be a more impressive thing than a front runner moving back a few places. And yet that front runner does better in the championship. So I wanted one where basically the most impressive team would win.

I'm thinking the maths for this might be quite complicated. But I'll work it all out. Some factors that will be in there. Reliability, achievement of their season objectives, improvement over last years performance, achievement of our own objectives and so on.

Any other factors you think I should include?

Although Alex has stolen some of my thunder, I've collected here the predictions of every team who's said want they want to achieve this year. Obviously for the top teams the only goal is the championship, but hopefully this will serve as a reference later in the year for those middle of the grid guys whose eyes were bigger than their stomachs. Only time will tell.

Toyota are targeting a win, or to be at least as good as 2005, battling for third, and much better than last year.

Super Aguri aim to be in the top ten, and want to target points.

Renault think Kovalainen could win a race, and that Fisichella's going to challenge for the championship.

Red Bull aim to be in the top five, amongst the 'big boys'.

Toro Rosso plan to stay ahead of Super Aguri and possibly compete with Williams.

Honda are aiming for consistent race wins, and possibly the championship.

McLaren want the championship with Alonso, or to be fighting for it at the end.

BMW plan to shorten the gap to the top four, and possibly break in to them.

Ferrari want the championship.

I haven't got Williams or Spyker yet. If you have any more, or any contradictory, claims let me know!

In fulfillment of a comment I made a few days ago, here is a list of all the races I have on tape. My general criteria for keeping a Grand Prix are that it has a lot of overtaking and/or a close battle for the lead until the end. I have no problem lending them out or doing some joint watching. Anyone else's lists of taped events are greatly encouraged.

2003: Silverstone and Japan (title decider).
2004: Monaco, Silverstone and Spa.
2005: US (6 cars), Monza, Japan, Brazil, and China.
2006: Hungary, France, Bahrain, Australia, Brazil and China.

There's nothing like a positive attitude to turn a team around. And while over at Ferrari we find Kimi stringing together longer sentences than ever before*, with:

"My debut in the Ferrari went well, but honestly I had hoped for something more: I would have liked to drive it more in the dry instead of for just five laps. Yes, I'm happy, but I could have been a lot more. The seven tenths gap to Massa is surely down to that, because I didn't have time to change some things in the car. These things can happen when you're looking for the limit. I tried to, but I still don't know much about the car, and in any case I never lost control so in the end the spin turned out to be quite enjoyable. No, there's no point, the program is right as is. I look closely at the F2007 because I like it, and when I test it myself next week I'll know more about it. There are many things different, I will have to get used to them, but I'm not exactly a rookie. There's still a lot of pressure, I don't see differences from McLaren, of which I don't want to talk about anyway. It was a bit emotional, but in the circumstances I was more interested in the technical aspects than the emotional ones."

But that's not the biggest change, oh no, the biggest change is over at McLaren where everyone seems to be genuinely happy. Just listen to these quotes, all from Autosport:

Alonso:

"I call it 'new McLaren' because with all the new sponsors and everything it feels like a new team, and all the people are so excited about this new year, this new project, after not having success in the past, they feel that this is the year to come back.

"I feel confident. I feel more confident even than last year at the beginning of the season. We changed from V10 to V8, I was in Renault, I was thinking what's going to happen this year with the V8? This year with McLaren I'm not thinking what is going to happen with the new team, I think it will be OK with the new team.

"With the team I've been working 10 days in a row basically in January, and it feels very good. The atmosphere in the team has really impressed me, how they focus on winning.

"It's probably the nicest car I've had in my hands, but we need it to be quick, not nice, so we'll see. I think all the information we have now from the wind tunnel and the engine side, it's so good, it's maybe too good to be real! So we need to put the car on the track and see what exactly is the performance of this year's car."

Whitmarsh:

"I think Fernando has a distinctive driving style by comparison with his colleagues in F1 - clearly a pretty effective one - and there was a thought inevitably to what extent does he tune that to Renault, or was the Renault being tuned to him, it was a much lesser issue, virtually no issue at all, when we put him in the car with next year's tyres. It was a very confidence-boosting day for him and the team.

"However much you try to do everything the best possible way, it's useful having someone who is astute and intelligent with the credibility of Fernando to come and say why are you doing that, why are you doing this?

"It's early days yet. There are mixed emotions. You'd like him to come on board and say, 'This is perfect, I can't improve upon it.' I'll be pleased when he finds - which he will do - things that he can contribute to. And I think there's every sign that he will."

Alonso again:

"Lewis will I think be a help for the team, in a way he has no experience, so we can think that maybe he's not helping the team, at least at the beginning of the season. But I think completely the opposite. I think because he's young and quick he can give us some fresh ideas into the team, and some fresh air, that maybe we need. Because sometimes F1 teams get stuck in some of the ideas, traditions, things like that, and I think we can get something from Lewis.

"We will be doing teamwork a lot. I think it's one of the things that are changing in McLaren a lot this year. They're really focusing on the team, on getting both drivers the same conditions, and between us we'll work together to improve the car. I think Lewis will have a very good opportunity because between all of us, we can improve.

"I will learn things from him, because as I said sometimes it's fantastic to change your ideas, and he will learn a lot from everybody in the team as well. I feel really, really optimistic with this relationship.

"There are always top teams like Ferrari, Renault, Honda that will be fighting for sure," he said. "And maybe surprises, like maybe Toyota are quick this year, or BMW. Who knows? But at the end of the year there will be only two of these teams fighting for the championship, and hopefully McLaren will be one of them."

Team spirit like that is infectious and can't be faked. Hearing all that made me upgrade my thoughts about McLaren this year. You might say that all of this talk is all very well but it can't make the car go any faster. But we know that it can. Great teamwork and leadership from the front drivers is exactly the way to motivate the hard working team of engineers back home. They need to feel part of the front line gang rather than blamed when things go wrong and forgotten when things go right. Only the class acts remember their teams unprompted when they win. All of this could help Alonso get those extra tenths.

So are their any clouds on the horizon? Well apparently there may be. There are rumours that the surprise sale of a section of McLaren to a third party were a snub to Mercedes who depending on who you believe were not willing to pay enough money to Ron to clear the debt he'd always wanted to clear. Or because Ron felt that Mercedes shouldn't be more involved because they hadn't been pulling their weight in the deal. Ron felt that he's provided the drivers and chassis for a world championship run but it's been squandered by the Mercedes engine team. And so he didn't want them to have even more control.

What used to be standard has now become unique. McLaren Mercedes are now the only constructor team with an exclusive engine deal. Did Mercedes get a bit grabby behind the bikesheds? And did Ron have to give them a bloody nose? Only time will tell. But if this relationship starts to unravel then all the team spirit in the world won't make the slightest difference.

* I know Nick challenged my assertion about Kimi's lack of dialogue. But I think Nick and I probably agree about the amount Kimi spoke to the press. Whereas before we were disagreeing as to whether this same reticence occurred while he was debriefing his team.

An obscene amount of money would you consider following round the formula one circus for a year?

it could be Ferrari versus Renault with Kimi for Ferrari this time and Fisi still for Renault.

But we know what happens when these two race each other. Kimi proves once again that he is incredibly skilled with this overtaking manoeuvre.



Or was this a case of half Raikkonen skills and half Fisi letting himself be beaten?

Do you support your team or enjoy your sport? Or both.

Which is more important to you?

I'm sure we all know the example of AFC Wimbledon. Did the fans decide that the sport was more important than their club or the other way around? Some could argue that the club moved to milton keynes and the true fans accepted that and moved on but those who believe in football as a grass roots sport continued to support the team at the end of their road whoever they were which was now AFC.

But the more likely arguement was that club is more important than sport here because the supporters would rather support their club as they see it than watch another team play in the higher leagues.

This situation is happening this year in F1 as Minardi is going to reappear in one of the sports lower ranks. But nobody really seems to care.

My question is this: could you, as a football fan ever enjoy a match where your team lost. And could you ever objectively put it above other games where your team had won. Can you imagine at the end of your time when you turn in your greatest games of all time having the number one game on the list be a game where your team lost?

I don't think the AFC situation could ever happen in motorsport or cricket really where, like F1, you are more often than not supporting the sport rather than the team or individual.

So Adrian, and any other football people, I would love to hear your answers.

And Stew it is my opinion that you, unlike your less bearded colleagues in this establishment, do tend towards more supporting one driver, one team or along national lines. And i wonder if that's true. And do you have a problem with people being more generalist supporters? I know you don't mind criticising Button. I wonder if that's just because he's rubbish or because you feel he should be doing better considering he's been the leading Brit.

And finally Nick. Why don't you have a beard any more? Is it because you feel that Stew has cornered the beard market with his online name?

And to Alex. Is it wise to write posts when this drunk?

[note I was drunk when I wrote this not now when I'm posting it]

So why have I been banging on about Kimi so much these last few days?

The thing is that I've always gone on about him right from the very begining as I have about Alonso, Sato and Massa. Sato may come right eventually but I'm including him to show it's not a completely blinkered view of history.

I loved Michael. I admit it. I thought he was awesome and amazing. And to be honest in that situation in most sports that would mean that I should hate Kimi and Alonso because they were the barstards that pushed him out.

But actually that isn't the way that it works in F1. I thought Michael was so good that I wanted to see somebody take him on. I wanted to see Michael pushed because if somebody could do that then that would be a sight to see.

And Kimi did it first. He did it before Alonso did it. And sure he didn't actually beat Michael but he was the first driver to make Michael sit up and notice. Because although I will always rate Mika he won while Michael was weakened by his machinery whereas Kimi pushed Michael while he was on song.

Now Alonso has won twice and part of me would like to point out that in both cases the competition was weakened and that it was less about how good he was and more about how bad the others were doing. And while there was an element of that about 2005 and the begining of 2006 nobody can say that Alonso didn't win those titles by sheer talent and determination. There was an element of luck and fair winds behind them both but the same could be said for more than half of Michael's world championships too.

So I want to make it clear I don't support one driver in Formula One. I have always supported the driver in a race who can keep the championship going until the final race of the season. But...

This year is a very important one for Kimi. He needs to prove that he hasn't squandered his talent. And more importantly he needs to prove to me that I was right to pick him from the pack all of those years ago.

I'm not saying that I'm going to give him unfair treatment. He'll still be pushed asunder if he threatens to dominate the season. I just hope he does well.

Oh and I genuinely think it's going to be a good year for Sato too.

Kimi doesn't talk a lot. I mean he's famous for not talking a lot. And I wonder if that might be more important than ever this year. Not only because he's going to be dealing with a set of people used to getting a lot of feedback from their driver. And that he's probably, lets face it, got worse over his years at McLaren.

But also because of the changes to the way that Fridays will now work.

Up until last year Fridays were a day for the test drivers. The idea was to bring in a lot of fresh talent and kind of give them a go. And lo Formula One has a lot of fresh talent and the older more bankable stars are being pushed out and suddenly a stop has been put to the fresh talent. Now the race drivers will be able to drive on a Friday which has the added benefit of meaning that if you're a punter and you go on a Friday you might actually see somebody you've heard of.

So what's this got to do with Kimi? Well if he can't explain to his engineers what he needs doing to his car. And he can't send out another driver to test for him as they used to then maybe it will get very difficult.

Or maybe Kimi will finally become better at it because there is simply no other method for improving the car.

With all the potential excitement of the new season there may be one unfortunate thing. There may be less overtaking. Perhaps this is why we look to be getting variable tire textures?

The reason for the change this year is not just the fact that everyone will be driving on the same tires though. The other factor is the engines.

Last year with engine reliability at a premium because of the two race distance requirement the teams kept their revs limited most of the time. But in cases where they needed to pass someone they could turn the wick up. The so called push to pass.

The difference is that this year the revs will be limited by the FIA rather than by the teams. And so push to pass will be gone.

Of course you could ask the question: how important is overtaking in formula one?

I think Alex's most recent method for distributing points works pretty well.

2 points for pole.
2 points for each race position you get right.
1 point for each race position within 1 place of what you guessed.

Although it does lack the bias toward the front of the grid. Perhaps 3 for first place? Anyway, it's definitely the best idea. We were trying to over-complicate it I think. Maybe we should also state at the beginning how we think the championship will end and get points for that too? Who is going to administrate it?

The new Ferrari looks more like a drag car than a normal F1 car and I'm quite excited by this change. It really seems to show some serious pushes forward in the development department.

It may also be a sign of the new Ferrari design team taking a bold new and stamping their authority on Ferrari.

My only worry is this Kimi has had a long run of unreliable cars. I wanted this Ferrari to be more bulletproof than the last one just for Kimi's sake.

But on the other hand you can't make an car fast without stressing a few parts. And that car needs to be fast if he's going to win.

If you'd ask most drivers what they'd want in a car they'd probably say they want a car that's fast and reliable. And then they'd start to talk about the compromises you need to make. And how in the end reliable is probably slightly more important. If you'd ask Kimi what would he say? Maybe, "I don't care as long as I win".

According to reports it will be confirmed today or tomorrow that we will be having a 'red rule' for the tyres this year. Which is completely stupid.

The idea is that everyone has to run during the race with one set of hard tyres and one set of soft. And that the teams have to decide which one they'll use at each point which is supposed to make things more exciting because people will be on different tyres at different points which will create more artificial overtaking. One of the sets (eg. Hard) will be Red on the side so you know what the driver is driving at any point.

Now I may be proved wrong because all of this might be very exciting. It might, and if it does then I'll happily eat my words.

But the more likely situation is that it will end up simply confusing everyone. And it has been put in place to create tyre related drama so people keep mentioning the name Bridgestone. But if we wanted tyre related drama why didn't we just let there continue to be two tyre manafactorers?

Grrr!

Well Super Aguri did a great job last year at even starting the first race, and by the end of the first season they really did have a bit of a team going on. Sato, always a favourite of mine, continued to do well in very difficult circumstances. He even got himself into tenth place in the last race of the season.

The Drivers

Sato has always been somebody that the other drivers are wary of. This is largely because he is so unpredicable. And although at one point he seemed on his way out of F1 I'm glad to say that he seems to have found a place where he's going to be allowed to flourish. And I feel he is our best chance for a Jacques Villeneuve type person saying exactly what he thinks about the other drivers in the future. With a proper team mate this season he'll be pushed a little harder which is certainly a good thing. I think he'll have a good season.

Anthony Davidson joins F1 this year right at the back of the grid but in that most enviable of places for a rookie a team that's going somewhere. If he shines he can take some of the credit. Anthony hasn't ever really proved himself to be the fastest potential driver in F1 but he has shown some promise. Lets hope that he hasn't learned the bad lessons of the permanent test driver (these guys tend to be great qualifiers but the worst overtakers) and takes this opportunity to show the grid that they shouldn't have been ignoring him for so long.

The Team

This team has done everything together and as a team. They have been working so hard that they really deserve some reward this year.

The Problems?

That they'll do so well that they won't be underdogs any more.

Outside Bet?

A podium for Sato

More Likely?

They are the most improved team in terms of points.

A difficult season for MF1 last year, as the team was up for sale almost from the start. Two things seemed to be clear though, that they needed to get the team completely moved over before the start of the 2007 pre-season, and that Monteiro was a better driver than Albers. On the first point they were successful they even got Ferrari engines secured (engine packing problems aside). But on the second they screwed up royally. Spyker is Dutch, Albers is Dutch and so he stayed. Why didn't they keep hold of Monteiro?

The Drivers

Albers is okay. He's not terrible. But he was bested by his team mate last year and the year before, and that's the best yardstick that we have - and is especially important in the teams at the back of the grid.

Stuil is new to Formula 1 but he comes with the personal recommendation of Lewis Hamilton. And if Hamilton is telling Albers to be scared then he might well be on to something.

The Team

The management of the team hasn't really been sorted out yet, and it's all a bit up in the air. I think the team will be happy to stick at the back of the grid this year and take a look next year at what they can really do. They had one team behind them last year, but that team is going places. What a strange situation it will be that this year Spyker and Torro Rosso will be challenging each other for dead last position and both with be using the current Ferrari engines (no wonder Ferrari fought so hard to stop Red Bull from switching them).

The Problems

Simply not fast enough

Outside Bet?

Stuil gets himself up into the points a couple of times.

More likely?

Suil outperforms his team mate but it's hard to tell because nobody scores any points all year.

A team that probably should have done better last year. They had a year old car which can't have helped things. But then they had the rev limited V10. To be fair to them they were damned if they did and damned if they didn't. If they had done well the stewards would have further limited their engines and then they would have been at the back of the grid. As it was they didn't need any help from the stewards.

The Drivers

[These are the provisional drivers as the final team line up hasn't been announced.]

I'm not sure I've ever understood what people see in Liuzzi. Or rather what they used to see. Of course it's hard to see how well either of the drivers have done in a car which was troubling all year and difficult to drive. I can see why Burger hasn't declared what he's doing next year yet. His drivers haven't out driven the car this year.

Scott Speed has the same problems as above but in addition is, despite his name, slower. And more arrogant.

The team

This year they will have a better car and better engines in theory. The team however doesn't seem as together and driven as those around them.

The problems

We know how hard Red Bull pushed to have Renault engines rather than Ferrari ones. This clearly means that the Renault engines will work much better with the chasis that Red Bull and Torro Rosso will be sharing. We also know from last year that the Ferrari engine has all kinds of packing problems which can make it overheat. I think that Adrian Newey will not bother to solve this problem properly. So I think Torro Rosso could have to run the engine at a seriously compromised power output.

Outside Bet?

Torro Rosso beat Red Bull. This is the most outside bet so far.

More Likely?

A stinker of a season.

How did we miss this story last year?

http://www.autosport.com/news/grapevine.php/id/48977

In my post this morning I said I thought Williams could end up best of the rest. And I was thinking after I sent it that it might not really be clear what that means.

In the constructors championship there used to be a top four or three. But in the past ten years it has been really a top two or three. This is largely because while Renault was hauling itself up Williams was falling away. The teams in this top four are kind of like the permanent members of the UN. And they have been Ferrari, McLaren, Benetton / Renault (the same team despite the name change in my book) and Williams.

Other teams have popped up from time to time, and some of this group have fallen lower. But the key difference is that none that have fallen in position after having risen have stayed the course - except for there four. This is why you can't discount a return for Williams. It just might not happen this year.

In Formula One there seems to be a number of different ways to cut it. I normally think of the top two or three teams as the first tier. I would say that McLaren were not in this tier last year because they never really seemed to be challenging for the title. And we have had three way title battles as recently as four years ago when it was Ferrari, McLaren and Williams in the hunt until the second to last race.

Then there are the middle of the field people last year this was lead by McLaren (110 points - just over half the points scored by Ferrari), then it went Honda (86), BMW (36) and Toyota (35). Okay so there's another big gap in there but it seemed to me that there these teams were the kind of teams which were usually in the points paying positions through the year.

Then we have what I was talking about as the best of the rest which was Red Bull racing this year. They had 16 points so less than half of Toyota above them, so a big gap. And really these are the teams that were excited to get just a point in a race let alone anything else. And obviously we have Williams, Toro Rosso, Midland and Super Aguri. The last two didn't score any points at all in the season.

So yes this is a bit of a rambling post but the point is that there are always these three bands. The top teams, the middle teams and the rest. There isn't a straight number of teams in each year but there always seems to be bands like this rather than the particular continuum that you would normally expect.

Really it splits, I suppose, into teams that win races, teams that regularly score points and teams that are surprised by points. But obviously that would have been a much shorter post!

How the mighty have fallen. There are torrid seasons for big teams, like MaLaren not winning a single race - but at least they stayed in the top three, and then there William's disaster of a season. But this year there are big changes for the team. First a really big sponsorship deal and second Toyota engines.

The Drivers

Nico Rosberg was a revelation when he appeared in the first race of the last season. But what happened to him? Well the car became undriveable and he made some rookie errors. Unfortunately he tended to make mistakes on the days when he seemed to have a chance. If the car is faster but more importantly reliable then we could see a lot of Nico this year. Sadly for him he'll probably do some stunning drives that get him from 22nd to 9th and because he's still out of the points nobody will notice. A bit like Sato last year. A driver with potential for greatness. Lets hope the team doesn't let him down again.

Alex Wurtz has been hiding away at McLaren and Williams in testing roles rather like Anthony Davidson has been doing at Honda. He's a sensible driver who should be able to give the team some great feedback on the track. This might be a shrewd move by the team as the new rules mean that it will be the race drivers who do the testing on a Friday. Otherwise it's not the most inspiring choice. But he's a very nice guy and he'll be on itv a lot which will be good for the sponsors.

The team

A lot of change in the team over the winter. They have also moved Sam Michael off of the pit wall and back towards the factory which seems a smart move. Sam's a technical director who is too technical for his own good. He's never been a leader. Who they put in charge here will be crucial.

The problems

Reliability, reliability, reliablity.

Outside bet?

You don't want to bet against a Williams comeback. With new money at a team that's learnt how to spend efficiently, reliable engines and Nico being quick we could see a podium or two for the team.

More likely?

Best of the rest.

Kimi doesn't look right in a Ferrari shirt: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/56186
Alonso doesn't look right with a shaved head: http://www.autosport.com/magazine.html

Is this a bad sign, or completely irrelevant? Does how a driver look in his team colours matter at all, or will we just 'get used' to them? It's certainly a very superficial aspect of the sport, but if we feel uncomfortable, perhaps the drivers and the team might begin to do so, and if there is one problem, it can easily develop in to, and justify, many more...

A quiet year last year while they were waiting for an Adrian Newey designed car.

The Drivers

Coulthard has been driving well since he moved to this team. And it will be interesting to see what a bit of proper competition does to that confidence. I think he's really liked being number one which may not stay once Webber arrives. Interestingly Coulthard always does better in the race than qualifying.

Whereas Webber is known for the opposite. Mark has been waiting for his big break for a while. He's likeable, but he's not been lucky. Maybe this is the big one for him.

The team

With the new car having been worked on for so long and with such an important designer in charge we should see some real progress from the team this year. They could really be snapping at the heals of the big boys. Especially as they're powered by Renault engines.

The problems

If Webber starts beating Coulthard that may cause some instability in the team. And as Webber works for Flav we could start seeing fireworks if the Red Bull Renaults start going faster than the Renault Renaults.

Outside bet?

Mark wins a race in a straight fight with Fisi.

More likely

Red Bull get themselves ahead of Toyota.

Think back to just a few years ago when Ferrari and Michael seemed to win everything. Then Toyota was just a glimmer in the car makers eye. What they wanted was not just to join Formula one but dominate. The answer came back. The teams in Formula one at the end of the season always seem to line up in order of budget. That was the dirty secret of Formula one that they thought they had uncovered. Spend more money than Ferrari and you can win. So in came a budget bigger than Ferrari and red cars they even, after a bit, bagged themselves a Schumacher. It was just the wrong one. And now two other manufacturer teams have joined and Honda and BMW did better than them. But to be fair to Toyota for a moment they did build their team from scratch and almost from the moment they arrived Formula one started trying to make money less important. For the last two year Renault have won everything and yet their budget is certainly not one of the top three. The big criticisms for Toyota are that they have no clear race day leadership and their driver selection is mad.

The Drivers

Ralf is the third highest paid driver in Formula One. And last year he didn't win any races. He is number one at something though: inconsistency. He'd blame the car for his lack of wins and sure even the best would have found it hard in a car like that. But why pay somebody average that much money? Why not have some raw talent in the car so you can spend more on the car. That's been BMW's tactic this year and it has seemed to work.

Trulli used to be known as the roadblock because he'd qualify well and then keep everyone behind him in a car that was slower in race trim. Now he isn't qualifying well and he can't keep people behind him.

The problems?

Imagine a problem and Toyota have a form you have to fill out in triplicate to find out how many times they've had that problem even though the answer is always lots.

Outside bet?

Ralf wins a race.

More likely

There's yet another massive shake up at Toyota which yet again has no visible impact because they fail to fire the drivers.

BMW had a great season last year as most improved team. Despite the lackluster performance of their lead driver.

The Drivers

Nick Heidfeld had a poor season proving that even when you get what you've been hoping for sometimes it can not be all you'd hoped. He finally got a top funded team concentrated around him which he's always wanted since Kimi took his chance when he went to MaLaren. And yet he still needed to be shocked out of complacency by his team mates every couple of races. He'll have to watch himself this year.

Kubica took to the track after BMW had had enough of Jacques. At the time it seemed a bad move because JV was actually hustling more than Heidfeld. But Kubica was so fast such criticisms soon went out of the window. Now with a little experience under his seatbelt and a winter test program with him in the driver role we should see some very exciting stuff from him next season. Certainly a contender for at least a win.

The team

Other than changing their driver their team has been almost as stable as Honda. This should stand them in good stead this year. The also have a very highly regarded ace up their sleeve in the shape of Sebastian Vittel who seems seriously fast. I would love to see Heidfeld dumped and Vittel in his place. We'd see some serious fireworks between Vittel and Kubica if they were pushing each other.

The problems?

It has been announced that Vittel might replace the worst performing driver three quarters of the way through the season. This could spur the drivers on but could easily cause in fighting in a team that has so far been pretty harmonious.

Outside bet?

Heidfeld dumped mid season. Vittel promoted.

More likely?

Kubica outshines his lead driver and gets at least one win.

The team scored their first win last year with Jenson Button but with all of the hype they've been generating about next year will they be able to live up to their own expectations?

The Drivers

Jenson finally won last year but in a situation which probably begs more questions than it answers. Can you really call yourself a winner if it takes all of the other drivers falling off the track for you to win. He did drive well in a difficult situation, but he's certainly kidding himself if he thinks the stat that he won more points than anyone else in the last eight races is important for this year. Jenson needs to do well this year because otherwise the brit support will be split four ways this year. And with Hamilton's potential to be super quick he's going to have to watch himself to make sure he doesn't become Coulthard.

What has happened to Rubens? Is he going to be remembered as the best second driver ever or is he going to step up to the plate? You can't help but feel that even Rubens has admitted to himself that if it was going to happen that it would have happened by now. But until we see him pushing Jenson he isn't fulfilling his own potential.

The Team

The main advantage for Honda over any of the front runners is their stability. No changes to management and no changes to drivers. Maybe this will work to their advantage.

The problems

They are a team that is built around their "superstar" driver, copying the system that worked so well at Ferrari. They just haven't noticed that Jenson doesn't deserve the attention.

Outside Bet?

Jenson wins the world championship.

More Likely?

Jenson fails to win a single race.

A disaster of a year for McLaren with much turbulence and upset for the team. They didn't deliver even one win which must have hurt Ron quite badly. But on the other hand it was a disaster of his own making. He was unable to hang on to Adrian Newey but because he hired the world champion driver a year in advance he caused massive instability in his own team where three drivers into two didn't fit. Whatever the truth about when Kimi's contract was signed to Ferrari you have to ask why Montoya quit. He looked like a shoe in for the second seat. But maybe it was the way that Ron was chasing after Kimi and trying to get him to change his mind which upset Juan-Pablo so.

The Drivers

What more can be said about Alonso which hasn't been said before? He's fast, mentally strong, and can do a mean card trick. I personally think Alonso will fit in very well at McLaren. Ron's looking for a son after Mika (Kimi was never it - too outlandish) and Alonso is looking for a father figure he can trust (Flav was too outlandish for Alonso). A bond will be formed between them. The only thing that can hold him back is the car - he's ready to win again.

Hamilton has a hard balancing act coming up. He's got a massive learning curve ahead of him. And it's going to be a hard one to scale. He needs to stop himself from being too cocky at first because people will be expecting too much from him. People will forgive him a few mistakes in his rookie year. And nobody will expect him to be next to Alonso (except Lewis himself) this year which will give him some space to learn. But already I feel like some people on the grid resent Hamilton. Every driver would have loved to have learnt on the best equipment and have said that Ron is taking too big of a risk. And I'm sure they'd all love to be proved right.

The team

Lots of changes for the design department. And while there have been lots of rumours that Ron wrote off last year to start work on this car early we have to face that some of that work will have been redundant due to late rule changes and that this is the first car designed by a new and untested team. Last years car was designed by Newey.

The problems

The reliability and terminal speed of the car will be the main factors. If the McLaren isn't fast out of the box come Melbourn then Alonso will be struggling all year. He's used to setting out his stall with Renault not chasing at the end of the season.

Outside bet?

Hamilton wins a race before Alonso does.

More likely?

Alonso teaches Kimi what driving despite a poor car looks like, but it's just not enough to win the championship.

A case of so close and yet so far for them last year. But with that sense of loss for the championship and Michael will they be able to pull it back together with the new team.

The drivers

Kimi comes in to this season with something to prove. The greatest drivers should be able to drive around a failing car. There were flashes of this last year but there were certainly points where it seamed the whole team including Kimi had decided not to bother. And that's not the behaviour you expect from somebody who wants to be World Champion. He has the speed but will he be able to adapt to the Ferrari culture? Despite all of these questions we know that he's still lightning fast when he has the car under him. McClaren has a lot to do to catch Ferrari. He must start the season as favourite. But if he doesn't deliver with such favorable conditions big questions will start being asked.

If Kimi was a let down last year then Massa was a revelation. Because of a willingness to learn he was one of the only drivers last year who was actually getting faster on his own bat rather than simply waiting for his car to catch up. Certainly with his relationship with team principal Jean Todt being so strong he will now be the best supported second driver in F1. But can he catch Kimi? He came close to Michael a few times last year. But I think we were already seeing some waning of the great man's powers. If he can catch Kimi in the same car then he's truely arrived.

The team

Well Ferrari have had the biggest shake up of all the teams. The core has been ripped out with Michael and Ross on their respective ways. And there are many rumours that this might be the last year for Jean Todt too, although there is a possibility of Ross coming back it will still be a very disrupted year for them.

The problems

If the team doesn't work together then things might be tough. Especially with the amount of personal pressure on Kimi, although you have to imagine that he takes that kind of thing in his stride.

Outside Bet?

Ross Brawn is back on the pit wall by Australia.

More Likely?

Kimi wins his first world championship with Ferrari.

The 2007 season is shaping up to be an exciting one. With new drivers, old drivers in different teams, changes within the teams themselves and everybody claiming to have a good car after winter testing, its hard to guess how it is all going to pan out.

Since the SofaF1 world will be humming with wisdom, driver form comment, pole polls, wishful thinking and Nick's crazy prediction of the week, why not try and harness some of the predictive effort into a bit of a competition?

This would require the competitors (i'm guessing at just us 3!) to submit a prediction to SofaF1, before each qualifying session and race, of the top 8 (or something) positions for each. Points would then be awarded on some basis and the race (from the sofa) would be on.

Anyway its just an idea at this stage, but if you think it is worth a go and we can think up a scoring system then i am happy to administrate the point accumulation.

Double world champions last year. But with Alonso gone what can they do to keep momentum?

Drivers

Fisi is no Alonso but at least he's won a race or two and he knows the team pretty well. However this is one of those situations where familiarity seems to have built contempt rather than respect.

Hekki seems to be super fast and it's going to be really interesting to see how it goes for him. Last year saw the promising Rosberg disappoint. But learning in a difficult car can be tricky - just ask Massa who came on in leaps and bounds once given the chance in a Ferrari. We don't yet know what the Renault will be like but it's hard to imagine it's going to be as bad as a Williams. And with his key rookie opponent being Hamilton in the "needing vast improvement" McLaren. And it's certainly going to be easier to look impressive next to Fisi than Alonso.

The team

The team have hardly changed other than a minor tweak to Pat Symonds role. Which is probably their biggest strength over Ferrari and McLaren where things have been moving a lot.

The Problems

The team don't think Fisi can win. But some of the team think that showing they can win even with Fisi will prove the car is the star. Both of these opinions will piss off their rather sensitive driver. As will Hekki beating him on occasion.

Outside bet?

Fisi quits or is fired before the end of the season.

More likely?

Renault end the season in fourth proving that the drivers are important in Formula one.

When Jenson Button finally won his first grand prix this year he was pretty cool about it. And spoke about how it had been a great vindication for all those years of trying without success. But at least one member of his group, his PA, was unable to contain her excitement about the whole situation.

Here's some video of her going kind of crazy with excitement when he wins.

Last season was like one big sending off party for Michael Schumacher and now we're suffering from the hangover.

As I've often said, or at least tried to say, is that the on track action is really only part of the appeal of formula one. The over-reaching story is the most interesting part. And once you become invested in the story you find it hard to tear yourself away. Because unlike a soap or professional wrestling formula one isn't scripted.

But the end of a chapter (or considering it's scope volume) means the has been a little lull as everyone gets used to the idea that Michael isn't coming back. But in the aftermath everyone has shifted around using this chance to grab their moment at the top.

The big question for a year almost already defined by change is: do you want to be the most stable or the most radical?