Thursday, May 24, 2007
The Rational Lottery
So at the Monaco grand prix you want to have your tires really soft. And you don't really want to have to use your hard tires very much at all. But the rules say you have to use them at some point in the race.
The one thing that we know about Monaco is that there is often a safety car. And that it's often at the begining. So it seems likely that at least some of the teams will start on the hard tires and hope for a safety car period in the first couple of laps. That way they will have used their hard tires and complied with the regulations and then they'll be able to spend most of the race on the ideal tires.
But Alex isn't there something weird about the way that the safety car period works this year you seem to be saying? Well as it's almost certain to be crucial I thought I'd better repeat the new rules here.
The pit lane is closed when the safety car is deployed. When the safety car crosses the pit entrance with an F1 car directly behind him the pit lane is open.
Then one-half to one lap before the restart the safety car will signal that all lapped cars go past the safety car and rejoin at the back. This is to stop a backmarker being in the middle of the pack.
So those are the new safety car rules. We'll probably need them just because Monaco is Monaco, but there's also a chance it might rain...
Well with all of this going on and the usual Monaco madness it's going to be a great race whoever wins.
The one thing that we know about Monaco is that there is often a safety car. And that it's often at the begining. So it seems likely that at least some of the teams will start on the hard tires and hope for a safety car period in the first couple of laps. That way they will have used their hard tires and complied with the regulations and then they'll be able to spend most of the race on the ideal tires.
But Alex isn't there something weird about the way that the safety car period works this year you seem to be saying? Well as it's almost certain to be crucial I thought I'd better repeat the new rules here.
The pit lane is closed when the safety car is deployed. When the safety car crosses the pit entrance with an F1 car directly behind him the pit lane is open.
Then one-half to one lap before the restart the safety car will signal that all lapped cars go past the safety car and rejoin at the back. This is to stop a backmarker being in the middle of the pack.
So those are the new safety car rules. We'll probably need them just because Monaco is Monaco, but there's also a chance it might rain...
Well with all of this going on and the usual Monaco madness it's going to be a great race whoever wins.
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I don't think starting on hard tyres is the right choice - or, it may be, but not for the reasons you state. If you come in to change your tyres in the first couple of laps under a safety car you'll go to the back of the pack, won't you? Then you'll have to refuel later on, your normal amount. You'll be one pit-stop behind everyone else. It makes no sense, seemingly? The best strategy is surely to save them for a short final stint. The track will be rubbered in to its optimum amount, and usually there's such a distance between cars by then that it won't make much of a difference.
Normally the best strategy is to save the hard for the end you're right. And basically you would imagine that there will be a lot of people who would two stop and have a short final stint on the hards.
But if you do it the other way round with a short initial stint on the hards it could play to your advantage because a) it's really hard to overtake so although you might be going slowly nobody will be getting past you b) if there are safety car periods then everyone stays closer together anyway.
So the theory goes something like this you plan to pit on lap 10 or earlier. If there are no safety car periods in this time then you haven't really lost anything except perhaps the leaders have pulled away from you slightly.
If there is a safety car period early then you take the pitstop and fuel to half way. The cars have enough room to effectively do a one stop on the circuit and it would have been the ideal strategy on the ciruit except for having to carry that much fuel in qualifying and having the wrong tires for half of the race.
So I think the ideal is qualify on fumes, then start with the hards and change them really soon after the start. Everyone else will end up behind you because you'll be able to keep up with the pack (especially if there's a safety car). That's the theory anyway.
But if you do it the other way round with a short initial stint on the hards it could play to your advantage because a) it's really hard to overtake so although you might be going slowly nobody will be getting past you b) if there are safety car periods then everyone stays closer together anyway.
So the theory goes something like this you plan to pit on lap 10 or earlier. If there are no safety car periods in this time then you haven't really lost anything except perhaps the leaders have pulled away from you slightly.
If there is a safety car period early then you take the pitstop and fuel to half way. The cars have enough room to effectively do a one stop on the circuit and it would have been the ideal strategy on the ciruit except for having to carry that much fuel in qualifying and having the wrong tires for half of the race.
So I think the ideal is qualify on fumes, then start with the hards and change them really soon after the start. Everyone else will end up behind you because you'll be able to keep up with the pack (especially if there's a safety car). That's the theory anyway.
Until about three minutes ago I had no diea what this all meant. But now I do. I think.
When are we Pole Polling?
When are we Pole Polling?
I just thought I'd brush up on my safety car rules too, and the ones on F1.com seems slightly different to yours: http://www.formula1.com/insight/rulesandregs/20/5251.html
It says they have to line up in order, and only when they're in order can they pit. But in the full regulations that they link to it doesn't explicitly say this, nor anything about your one-half to one lap before the restart thing.
It says they have to line up in order, and only when they're in order can they pit. But in the full regulations that they link to it doesn't explicitly say this, nor anything about your one-half to one lap before the restart thing.
Interestingly, the rule is that you can't refuel during a safety car period until told to do so. However, you can come in to get rid of those hard tyres!
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