Thursday, January 04, 2007
How about this for an idea?
The 2007 season is shaping up to be an exciting one. With new drivers, old drivers in different teams, changes within the teams themselves and everybody claiming to have a good car after winter testing, its hard to guess how it is all going to pan out.
Since the SofaF1 world will be humming with wisdom, driver form comment, pole polls, wishful thinking and Nick's crazy prediction of the week, why not try and harness some of the predictive effort into a bit of a competition?
This would require the competitors (i'm guessing at just us 3!) to submit a prediction to SofaF1, before each qualifying session and race, of the top 8 (or something) positions for each. Points would then be awarded on some basis and the race (from the sofa) would be on.
Anyway its just an idea at this stage, but if you think it is worth a go and we can think up a scoring system then i am happy to administrate the point accumulation.
Since the SofaF1 world will be humming with wisdom, driver form comment, pole polls, wishful thinking and Nick's crazy prediction of the week, why not try and harness some of the predictive effort into a bit of a competition?
This would require the competitors (i'm guessing at just us 3!) to submit a prediction to SofaF1, before each qualifying session and race, of the top 8 (or something) positions for each. Points would then be awarded on some basis and the race (from the sofa) would be on.
Anyway its just an idea at this stage, but if you think it is worth a go and we can think up a scoring system then i am happy to administrate the point accumulation.
Comments:
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*pipes up in small voice*
Do I still count as the Newbie? I should still very much like to participate; maybe you could make me go first each time so you can all have a good old chuckle...
...much like I do with Alex in the Channel 4 Fantasy Football League: Alex -v- Me
Do I still count as the Newbie? I should still very much like to participate; maybe you could make me go first each time so you can all have a good old chuckle...
...much like I do with Alex in the Channel 4 Fantasy Football League: Alex -v- Me
The big problem seems (to me) how to deal with the situation where you don't account for 1 car blowing up. So say you said
1 - Alonso
2 - Kimi
3 - Fisi
etc down to 8
and Alonso blows up so the race ends
1 - Kimi
2 - Fisi
etc down to 8 and you got every single car right but shifted by one place you shouldn't really get 0 points. You should only be penalised for the one car that you got wrong shouldn't you? Or am I being too easy?
I'll have a quick think about this...
1 - Alonso
2 - Kimi
3 - Fisi
etc down to 8
and Alonso blows up so the race ends
1 - Kimi
2 - Fisi
etc down to 8 and you got every single car right but shifted by one place you shouldn't really get 0 points. You should only be penalised for the one car that you got wrong shouldn't you? Or am I being too easy?
I'll have a quick think about this...
Okay so I've got a system sussed. It's a bit complex but still workable (I reckon).
You get 10 points for every position that you get right.
And you loose points from this perfect score for the number of points away from what you predicted they end up. So if you guessed the person would get 10 points and they actually got 4 points then you'd get 4 points (10-(10-4)). But if you guessed that they would get 4 points and they got 10 points then you'd also get 4 points.
But the idea is that you get 10 points for each of the ones you get right, and less than 10 points for any of the ones you get wrong (varying by how much you got it wrong). A full house scores you 80.
Using points instead of positions creates a slight bias towards getting the front of the grid right which seems right to me. So it is more imporant to get the first 3 in the right order than if you get 6-8 in the right order.
Here's the maths written in pseudo code:
The idea is that you subtract the number of points that they got from the number you guessed. So if you guessed that Kimi would get 10 points and he actually got 8. You take 10-8 = 2. And you make the result of this sum always positive eg. It doesn't matter if it's 8-10 or 10-8 it's always 2. And then you take this number away from 10. I've got a spreadsheet that works this all out. Which I'm happy to send Stew if people like the maths.
You get 10 points for every position that you get right.
And you loose points from this perfect score for the number of points away from what you predicted they end up. So if you guessed the person would get 10 points and they actually got 4 points then you'd get 4 points (10-(10-4)). But if you guessed that they would get 4 points and they got 10 points then you'd also get 4 points.
But the idea is that you get 10 points for each of the ones you get right, and less than 10 points for any of the ones you get wrong (varying by how much you got it wrong). A full house scores you 80.
Using points instead of positions creates a slight bias towards getting the front of the grid right which seems right to me. So it is more imporant to get the first 3 in the right order than if you get 6-8 in the right order.
Here's the maths written in pseudo code:
The idea is that you subtract the number of points that they got from the number you guessed. So if you guessed that Kimi would get 10 points and he actually got 8. You take 10-8 = 2. And you make the result of this sum always positive eg. It doesn't matter if it's 8-10 or 10-8 it's always 2. And then you take this number away from 10. I've got a spreadsheet that works this all out. Which I'm happy to send Stew if people like the maths.
Rock n' Roll fourstar, make that 4!
The points system sounds good to me, what should we do with qualifying though?, or will that be too complicated to factor in also?
Maybe a similar system, pick a pole sitter and if it is correct then you get 2 bonus points or if they are 2nd get one bonus point.
And maybe just 1 bonus point or something for the fastest lap?
How about a safety net too? So that if anyone is away and doesn't post, then the previous prediction will be used again? Much like not making any change to a fantasy football team?
The points system sounds good to me, what should we do with qualifying though?, or will that be too complicated to factor in also?
Maybe a similar system, pick a pole sitter and if it is correct then you get 2 bonus points or if they are 2nd get one bonus point.
And maybe just 1 bonus point or something for the fastest lap?
How about a safety net too? So that if anyone is away and doesn't post, then the previous prediction will be used again? Much like not making any change to a fantasy football team?
Well I reckon that pole should get you 10 points or so, because as you could score 50 points from the race then 2 points might get lost in the mix. Do you reckon? But maybe we would (to stop it getting too complicated) follow your system but just use 10 and 5. So you only pick the pole sitter. If you're right then you get 10, if they're second then 5 points. Does that sound right?
I do like the idea of fastest lap in there too.
And persistent vote sounds good.
I do like the idea of fastest lap in there too.
And persistent vote sounds good.
Yes, thats the correct theory on the pole position and i agree that 10 and 5 points would be better as the pole position is an important factor in the whole thing.
The problem with the fastest lap though is the need to specify yet another name. Maybe it would be simpler just to award some bonus points if the fastest lap is one of your top 3 drivers.
The problem with the fastest lap though is the need to specify yet another name. Maybe it would be simpler just to award some bonus points if the fastest lap is one of your top 3 drivers.
I'd like to thrown in another way of adding up points just to confuse everyone: for every position you get right you get the points they did. You bet Alonso will come in 2nd and he does, so you get 8 points, like him.
Thus there is a natural emphasis on getting the first positions correct. If he comes in third or first, you minus two points (the points-table difference) from that 8. As a full example:
You bet
1. Alonso, 2. Raikkonen, 3. Massa, 4. Hamilton, 5. Fisichella, 6. Button, 7. Barrichello, 8. Webber.
It ends
1. Raikkonen, 2. Alonso, 3. Massa, 4. Fisichella, 5. Kovaleinen, 6. Button, 7. Webber, 8. Coulthard.
You get
8 points, 6 points, 6 points, 3 points, 0 points, 3 points, 1 point, 0 points.
Is this any good? What do we do about manufacturers by the way? Maybe there is an even simpler way of doing all this?
Thus there is a natural emphasis on getting the first positions correct. If he comes in third or first, you minus two points (the points-table difference) from that 8. As a full example:
You bet
1. Alonso, 2. Raikkonen, 3. Massa, 4. Hamilton, 5. Fisichella, 6. Button, 7. Barrichello, 8. Webber.
It ends
1. Raikkonen, 2. Alonso, 3. Massa, 4. Fisichella, 5. Kovaleinen, 6. Button, 7. Webber, 8. Coulthard.
You get
8 points, 6 points, 6 points, 3 points, 0 points, 3 points, 1 point, 0 points.
Is this any good? What do we do about manufacturers by the way? Maybe there is an even simpler way of doing all this?
That's kind of where I started. What about a situation (which you didn't cover in your example) where somebody moves more than the number of points you would have got. Eg. You put Button in 8th and he wins? Do you get 0 or -9?
What I meant to add in the middle of there was I only changed the numbers to 10 to make it so that a) The points difference would never exceed the number of points you can get (no negatives) and b) so that it was almost as important to get 8th place right as 1st. I think it's just as hard to guess 8th if not harder.
Although you probably won't notice this now as it's kind of fallen off of the edge of the front page... How about this rather more simple idea:
2 Points for correctly guessing pole. If you're wrong you get nothing.
For the race you pick your top 8. And for any positions you get right you get 2 points. If you're wrong but the person ended up in one of the adjacent positions to what you guessed you get 1 point. More than one place away from what you guessed you get nothing.
The rules could be summarised as:
2 points for pole.
2 points for each race position you get right.
1 point for each race position within 1 place of what you guessed.
You could argue that if you guessed somebody for pole and they came second then you should get 1 point but I think the pole should carry more of the do or die spirit from the pole position shootout of old.
I don't know. What do you think?
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2 Points for correctly guessing pole. If you're wrong you get nothing.
For the race you pick your top 8. And for any positions you get right you get 2 points. If you're wrong but the person ended up in one of the adjacent positions to what you guessed you get 1 point. More than one place away from what you guessed you get nothing.
The rules could be summarised as:
2 points for pole.
2 points for each race position you get right.
1 point for each race position within 1 place of what you guessed.
You could argue that if you guessed somebody for pole and they came second then you should get 1 point but I think the pole should carry more of the do or die spirit from the pole position shootout of old.
I don't know. What do you think?
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