Monday, October 16, 2006
Hamilton/Alonso
Now that Paffett is 'free to drive elsewhere' it seems inevitable that Hamilton will be partnering Alonso next year. McLaren could go with De la Rosa, but I think the temptation, and the media hype, is too much for them. Do you think he'll match up against Alonso? I think he'll be terribly out-performed, but will nonetheless put in some impressive drives/qualifying sessions to ensure himself another year or two.
Other than that, despite the huge changes happening next year (Schumacher leaving, Alonso to McLaren, Kimi to Ferrari) - there is not much else left in the driver market. I hope Montiero keeps his drive - maybe Albers should have gone. The two Toyota drivers definitely weren't worth keeping. Nor were the two Toro Rosso ones - both, as Martin said in Japan, have had far too many accidents. Super Aguri will no doubt keep Sato and swap other Japanese drivers depending on whether they're banned or not, or maybe they'll give Davidson a chance? Overall, it's a hard year for new drivers to get into F1. I would've liked to have seen Piquet get a race drive, but he's playing it sensible with a testing role for Renault.
Other than that, despite the huge changes happening next year (Schumacher leaving, Alonso to McLaren, Kimi to Ferrari) - there is not much else left in the driver market. I hope Montiero keeps his drive - maybe Albers should have gone. The two Toyota drivers definitely weren't worth keeping. Nor were the two Toro Rosso ones - both, as Martin said in Japan, have had far too many accidents. Super Aguri will no doubt keep Sato and swap other Japanese drivers depending on whether they're banned or not, or maybe they'll give Davidson a chance? Overall, it's a hard year for new drivers to get into F1. I would've liked to have seen Piquet get a race drive, but he's playing it sensible with a testing role for Renault.
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I think this will be one of those what if moments in F1 (and as we all know F1 is IF backwards - thanks Murray).
We are really lucky looking forward to some awesome drivers coming through the ranks. Looking back we had Michael and then somebody who could rival Michael for a bit but no depth. It was always basically a battle of two for the last 10 years.
But for the next few years we've got Kimi / Alonso and then right hot on their heals will be Rosberg, Hamilton, Piquet, Kubica, Vittel and Kovalinan. And although there's six drivers there seems to be three strategies going on. Rosberg, Piquet, Vitel and Kovalinan have / will have all spent a year testing before they've came in. Kubica has spent almost a year but has had a bit of race experience before starting his real campaign. And Hamilton looks set to be starting from the ground running.
You need some really good head management to deal with what Hamilton is going to be dealing with. He will be making his mistakes in public and right alongside one of the fastest guys around. Ron is really going to have to be careful with his investment. But in a way perhaps its less pressure. Nobody expects him to be able to beat Alonso next year which perhaps gives him the safety net he needs.
I think five years from now we'll be looking back at the awesome carrers of these top drivers and trying to work out what happened to them. And perhaps the primary difference will be how many years experience they have and whether they did a year testing or not. I don't know what the odds are but... I do think it's very risky to have a driver who has never had experience of testing. They don't really do testing in any of the feeder series and it is a different dicipline in someways. But the most important thing is that it teaches you how to communicate with your team in a way that makes you perhaps better prepared for when things go wrong on a race weekend.
But Kimi has never had any pure testing experience and neither had Montoya so perhaps the cars poor reliability isn't just down to McLaren?
Ron knows what to do, he has to put Hamilton in this year because a year from now the expecations of Hamilton will be higher but it will be just as easy for Hamilton to make mistakes in when it will seem like he's been around for ages but when it's really still his first season.
My guess is that he'll outqualify Alonso a couple of times. And he'll beat him in the race a few times when Alonso is compromised, but that he won't win a race next season whereas I'm guessing Alonso will be aiming to win a few.
We are really lucky looking forward to some awesome drivers coming through the ranks. Looking back we had Michael and then somebody who could rival Michael for a bit but no depth. It was always basically a battle of two for the last 10 years.
But for the next few years we've got Kimi / Alonso and then right hot on their heals will be Rosberg, Hamilton, Piquet, Kubica, Vittel and Kovalinan. And although there's six drivers there seems to be three strategies going on. Rosberg, Piquet, Vitel and Kovalinan have / will have all spent a year testing before they've came in. Kubica has spent almost a year but has had a bit of race experience before starting his real campaign. And Hamilton looks set to be starting from the ground running.
You need some really good head management to deal with what Hamilton is going to be dealing with. He will be making his mistakes in public and right alongside one of the fastest guys around. Ron is really going to have to be careful with his investment. But in a way perhaps its less pressure. Nobody expects him to be able to beat Alonso next year which perhaps gives him the safety net he needs.
I think five years from now we'll be looking back at the awesome carrers of these top drivers and trying to work out what happened to them. And perhaps the primary difference will be how many years experience they have and whether they did a year testing or not. I don't know what the odds are but... I do think it's very risky to have a driver who has never had experience of testing. They don't really do testing in any of the feeder series and it is a different dicipline in someways. But the most important thing is that it teaches you how to communicate with your team in a way that makes you perhaps better prepared for when things go wrong on a race weekend.
But Kimi has never had any pure testing experience and neither had Montoya so perhaps the cars poor reliability isn't just down to McLaren?
Ron knows what to do, he has to put Hamilton in this year because a year from now the expecations of Hamilton will be higher but it will be just as easy for Hamilton to make mistakes in when it will seem like he's been around for ages but when it's really still his first season.
My guess is that he'll outqualify Alonso a couple of times. And he'll beat him in the race a few times when Alonso is compromised, but that he won't win a race next season whereas I'm guessing Alonso will be aiming to win a few.
This whole thing about having a year testing is puzzling. Alonso drove in a Minardi, then did a year testing, then came back with Renault and won a race in his first season. Raikkonen had no testing but started in a mid-field Sauber. Massa started in a Sauber, had some testing, then went back to Sauber. It's all a bit random. (Just to point out, Rosberg didn't spend a year testing - he went straight into a Williams.)
My theory is that this new generation of drivers simply don't communicate to the team in the same way as the older one did/does. They are trained to function as a driver only, isolated from a lot of the mechanics of how the car works, whereas this wasn't possible with Michael, Rubens, Coulthard, Fisi. Reliability has also got to a point where you don't need to 'drive a weekend', you just drive every lap to its fullest. This, I think, is why Kimi and Alonso sometimes strain the car too much.
The year's testing is an attempt to train them to understand how a car works and communicate it to the team, but I don't think it always works. It depends on the personality, of course, but I think Hamilton's just about ready to be in a race seat. Kubica was born ready.
My theory is that this new generation of drivers simply don't communicate to the team in the same way as the older one did/does. They are trained to function as a driver only, isolated from a lot of the mechanics of how the car works, whereas this wasn't possible with Michael, Rubens, Coulthard, Fisi. Reliability has also got to a point where you don't need to 'drive a weekend', you just drive every lap to its fullest. This, I think, is why Kimi and Alonso sometimes strain the car too much.
The year's testing is an attempt to train them to understand how a car works and communicate it to the team, but I don't think it always works. It depends on the personality, of course, but I think Hamilton's just about ready to be in a race seat. Kubica was born ready.
Looks like a lot of people are thinking that Paffet is off to Spyker next year...
Which would be bad news for Montiero who I've always liked.
Which would be bad news for Montiero who I've always liked.
Either that or he's going to end up in testing again somewhere else of course like at Honda. If Davidson is in the Super Aguri then there'll be a space.
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