Sunday, June 11, 2006
I do the math
The main thing to have come out of the grand prix today is a small mathematical shift in the championship.
Psycologically a driver needs to know that they can go and make the difference by themselves, and that's no longer posisble for Michael. You want to be able to go out there and win all of the races and just hold your apponent behind you.
Before the race this weekend Alonso was 21 points ahead of Michael. And if Michael had won every race and Alonso had come second then he would have got 22. And now Alonso is 23 points ahead of Michael and there is only a 20 points advantage to win (keeping Alonso in second while Michael wins).
So from here on in Micahel can't do it by himself. He has to rely on his team or a mistake from Alonso.
Psycologically a driver needs to know that they can go and make the difference by themselves, and that's no longer posisble for Michael. You want to be able to go out there and win all of the races and just hold your apponent behind you.
Before the race this weekend Alonso was 21 points ahead of Michael. And if Michael had won every race and Alonso had come second then he would have got 22. And now Alonso is 23 points ahead of Michael and there is only a 20 points advantage to win (keeping Alonso in second while Michael wins).
So from here on in Micahel can't do it by himself. He has to rely on his team or a mistake from Alonso.
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And if we remember last year the gap was about the same to Raikkonen, except Raikkonen had clearly the faster car. This year the Renault is, most of the time, faster than the Ferrari (although I think only by a couple of tenths now). Michael is going to have to rely on several failures to win this championship. It's going to be pretty tough.
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